Sorry, who's taking our jobs?

All views my own.

Day to day, I consult with universities on the best way we can work together to recruit the highest quality, and most relevant students. Like most vocations in most industries, my job is definitely at risk of redundancy at the deft, binary hands of an uber smart digital system. So with so much speculation about job loss by tech cannibalisation, what, if at all possible, could we achieve as a net positive of an automation overhaul?

Well, first off, it begs exploration of how and when this could happen, and the reality is this is very much upon us; slippery as summer sweat.

We historically, and for the time-being, live in a world where a large portion of human interaction, specifically commercial in this instance, has a prerequisite of mutual trust. However, this necessary condition suddenly melts away when viable, implicitly intelligent decision making is combined with robust digital trust systems.

To be clear, not just the administrative element of transactions- the entire decision-making process – the buyer scoping the market, the merchant assessing needs and finding the best-for-purpose solution, mutual agreement and the dreaded closing of the deal- without any human involvement. The shackles are shaken, and we’re able to have fully automated, digital transactions.

So, imagine, 10 years from now…

… Artificial intelligence is well established, beyond its current iterations, with the ability to make nuanced and sophisticated decisions at a speed beyond human capacity.

… Blockchain functionality has been mass adopted; relieving humans of the task of delivering trust-based exchange; marking energy provisions, executing and recording real estate sales, underpinning instantaneous government databases, performing complex data exchange between users and organisations, documenting IDs, travel and even voting…

Shackles broken.

If I’m Mr. Capitalist, as I often am, during the week at least, this type of automated exchange is very, very desirable. The scalability, the efficiency, the pure relief of human resource… it’s a no-brainer (literally). Suddenly, my bottom line is much, much lower and the capacity for trade increases monumentally.

In a connected world with instantaneous information relay through 5G networks; surgeons conducting complex operations remotely, smart farming, co-ordinating fleets of driverless cars… We hit a digital super-highway where, really, only our redundant and fusty notions of trade and commerce hold us back. I say us, inevitably there will be those who… capitalise… and leave the bewildered behind.

And even the argument that humans would still be required for creative production/problem solving, or principally human facing exchange, is relatively moot. AI and neural networks are so sophisticated now (let alone 10 years’ time) they can make creative decisions to a degree of complexity that mimics the nuances of human design or make scientific discoveries human beings don’t have the capacity to (not for lack of talent, but rather a resource problem again), we are approaching knee-wobbling and nerve-jittering territory.

What does this mean for job security? What are the implications for individuals and society as a whole?

To temper the slurry of worry; it would be highly, highly unlikely that jobs would just evaporate. The roll-out would be iterative, requiring huge sums of investment, introduction of mass scale physical infrastructure, contingency for collateral dysfunction, management of macro level integration with legacy systems, legality of practice and so forth.

Globally, McKinsey has projected up to 800 million jobs will be destroyed by 2030, with the US claiming 73 million of those losses. Redundancy rates will be directly linked to the level of investment countries and organisations make to ramp up AI and other tech adoption. Developed nations, with deeper pockets, will experience a far greater impact as a result. (based on the status quo, I can't imagine that will do much for parity and tension between socio-economic divides)

More interestingly, research estimates that up to 30% of hours worked globally could be automated. In other terms, that means that up to a third of constituent tasks for most jobs (varying depending on occupation) can be automated.

So, what could we do with this new abundance of time and energy? At the risk of proselytizing…

There could be a very real, and very attractive, alternative to the impending doom and gloom. It is ideological and ambitious, revolving round the question- are we able to transform our idea of what 'work' is, and what our individual and joint roles are in society?

A mass relief of human resource would create a huge boom in available talent, and the opportunity to create new economic systems. Our politics would need to change drastically to accommodate this (frankly, irrespective of this scenario they need to change), certainly, it could never be an overnight transformation from our neo-liberalism into a socialist paradigm. I also don’t think this is necessarily predicated on radicalism.

We can absolutely re-imagine what income looks like for the public and integrate this into current entrenched capitalism and wealth systems. It could still cater for greater abilities to earn more wealth across society. There are already such models proposed- universal income as a base salary for all, with the ability to earn on top of this should you choose, for example.

The prospect is so tantalising; pack in the mundane day jobs and redistribute efforts to climate change activities, community-based projects that improve the lives of those most in need in society; better care for the elderly, better education for our children… Surely it can't be too far-fetched to assume that we have an abundance of well-meaning and caring individuals in society? It's this compassion that could facilitate one of the most revolutionary exercises in social reformation since the last World War.

It's certainly hopeful, with flourishes of naivety. But, given the right direction and leadership, a vision that could be, at least, aimed for, if not achieved. Even if this happened to a degree, we would be able to better humankind in a way, in modern life, previously unheard of.

Sadly, the potency of hope, when attached to fantasy, is nebulous at best. And I fear, the true fuel of capitalism- lust and greed- will forever be the greatest preventers of all things equalising. Our reality: equity is not in the interest of the power merchants and the little men with hurt egos. 

Right, back to my day job, well, for now at least...